Australian Dollar Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Short-term Trade Levels
- AUD/USD January opening-range breakout climbs more than 5% off the monthly lows- seven-day rally now testing key resistance zone
- Aussie broader bullish structure remains viable while above near-term support, but a daily close above resistance is needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.
- Fed rate decision later today with the RBA and NFPs on tap next week
- Resistance 7009/17 (key), 7077, 7137- Support 6943, 6896-6913 (key), 6811/17
AUD/USD has surged for seven-consecutive sessions, lifting price more than 5% into the start of the year and driving the pair into confluent resistance near the psychological 0.70 level. The bulls must now grapple with the upper bounds of a technical formation that has guided the rally since mid-November. While the broader trend remains constructive, the response here will be critical in determining whether bulls can extend the breakout or if the move pauses to consolidate. Traders should stay nimble as price action at this level is likely to shape near-term direction for the Australian Dollar. Battle lines drawn on the Aussie short-term technical charts.
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Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Daily
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In my last Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook we noted that AUD/USD had set the January opening range, “just above yearly open support. From a trading standpoint, the immediate focus is on a breakout of the 6631-6727 for near-term guidance- losses would need to be limited to the median-line IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 6767 needed to fuel the next major leg of the AUD/USD advance.” The range held for nearly three-weeks before breaking higher with a seven-day rally extending nearly 5.4% off the monthly lows.
The advance is testing confluent resistance today ahead of the Fed rate decision at 7009/17- a region defined by the 100% extension of the November advance and the objective 2020 yearly open. Note that the upper parallel of an ascending pitchfork converges on this threshold and a breach / daily close above this slope is needed to fuel the next major leg of the Aussie advance. Look for a reaction off this mark into the close of the week for guidance.
Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD 240min
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView
Notes: A closer look at Aussie price action shows AUD/USD trading within the confines of an embedded channel formation (red) extending off the January 18 low with the upper bounds further highlighting near-term resistance here today. Initial support rests with the 2024 swing high at 6943 and is backed by the weekly open / 2024 high close at 6896-6913. A break / close below this threshold would threaten a larger setback within the broader uptrend with medium-term bullish invalidation now raised to the 2023 & 2024 yearly opens at 6811/17. Losses below this zone would suggest a more significant high is in place and a larger reversal is underway.
A topside breach / close above the upper parallel would expose subsequent resistance objectives at the 2023 high-day close (HDC) at 7077 and the August 2022 swing high at 7137. The next major technical consideration is eyed at the 100% extension of the broader April advance at 7214- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.
Bottom line: The AUD/USD rally has extended into confluent uptrend resistance ahead of today’s Fed rate decision and the focus on possible inflection off this zone. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops- losses should be limited to 6896 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above the upper parallel needed to fuel the next major leg of the rally.
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rate unchanged today and the central focus will be on the accompanying press conference with Chairman Powell. Fed Funds Futures are pricing a 62% chance the first cut will be delivered in June, just after Powell’s term ends. The timing puts an increased emphasis on President Trump’s pick for Fed Chair, and the market response to this announcement is likely to be more profound that today’s rate decision. Stay nimble here and keep an eye on the headlines into the close of the weekly. Review my latest Australian Dollar Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.
Key AUD/USD Economic Data Releases
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
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Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
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